Behavioural Meteorology

A little change of pace - we're back to behavioural economics, and a quick look at how we use frames to make sense of raw information. They can either be provided to us, for example by employing a trustworthy voice to give the information, or applied by us - if raw data is too complicated to fully understand, we use rules of thumb to make an educated guess.

And I think there's an opportunity being missed in weather forecasts - particularly the morning one, the one we pay most attention to - to frame the information and make it more meaningful.

Let's face it, judging what clothes to wear or take out with us can be tricky. A distinctly chilly spring morning may turn into a fine balmy afternoon. And the weather forecast is only of limited help when making that decision. OK, if it says 4 degrees, you're going to take a coat. If it says 20, you'll be fine in a tshirt. But somewhere in between is that terrible grey area. Is a coat needed? A jacket? A jumper? Both, and swap them if necessary? Who really knows how warm 13 degrees C is?

So the simple solution? Systematically show or refer to yesterday's temperature. We can all remember how warm it was, and what we wore, and whether it was too much or too little.

So at a glance, instead of hearing "temperatures will start around 7-8 then pick up to highs of 14 by mid-afternoon", you'll hear "it will be a little bit warmer than yesterday in the morning, but a little bit cooler than yesterday during the afternoon". And that's a frame we can all work with.